What the data shows
Avison Young's Q1 2026 Metro Vancouver Industrial Report flags a structural shift in how new industrial supply is being delivered. Of roughly 1.1 million sq. ft. of new construction starts in the quarter, about 900,000 sq. ft. were build-to-suit deals — projects with a tenant already locked in before a shovel touched the ground.
Speculative and strata starts, which averaged 63% of new square footage through 2025, fell to just 22% of starts in Q1 2026. That is the lowest share Metro Vancouver has seen since the post-pandemic surge began.
Why the share collapsed
- Higher construction financing costs reset the math on speculative completion timelines.
- Mid-cycle vacancy in the 4% range made lenders cautious on uncommitted product.
- Build-to-suit users — large logistics, food, and manufacturing groups — kept committing despite cost pressure because their alternatives in Metro Vancouver are narrower than ever.
What this means for tenants and buyers
If you are looking for new construction with flexible terms or partial commitment, the next 12 months will feel thin. The deliveries on the way are already spoken for.
If you are sizing a long-term commitment over 50,000 sq. ft., the build-to-suit conversation may now be more competitive on rate than waiting for spec stock to land.
"The market is not short on construction. It is short on construction you can walk into without signing first."
This note is an editorial read of the source above. Quoted figures and conclusions belong to the original publisher; the framing and submarket interpretation are ours.